The announcement by the College Football Playoff to increase its playoffs to 24 teams beginning with the 2027 season puts the American Conference, home to both Army and Navy, as well as the other Group of Six conferences, into a tough position and forces the leagues to look at some really hard choices.
First, and foremost, the deal, which included at extra $1.3 billion from ESPN, guarantees just one spot for a Group of Six team in the tournament. That means out of 70 FBS teams that play in the Group of Six leagues, just one is insured a spot in the national tournament. Other teams can make the tournament if two or more teams finish in the top 24 in the final CFP poll. That also means that out of 67 Power 4 Conference teams, as many as 23 teams, or 34 percent of teams, will make the tournament.
Second, the CFP tournament will begin the second weekend of December with eight games taking place on the home fields of the highest seeds. The top eight seeds receive a first-round bye. The Army-Navy game is being moved up a week to the first weekend of December and, because all the Power 4 Conferences are dropping their championship games, the two service academies will have an exclusive four-hour window on the first Saturday of December to face off. At least for the next five years.
Third, the agreement requires all of the Power 4 teams to play at least 10 other Power 4 schools every year. Since the four leagues already require their teams to play nine league games, each school needs just one more Power 4 school to fulfill their obligation. But, that also may mean less crossover between Power Four and Group of Six teams, and much less opportunity to host, or even play, a Power 4 program in coming years.
The biggest loser: UConn, the only independent besides Notre Dame, will have a very difficult time filling its schedule if the Huskies fail to get into a league….any league.
The second biggest loser could be Navy, since Notre Dame may opt to end its annual game (yearly since 1927 except for the 2020 covid season) with the Midshipmen to accommodate a more national schedule. Notre Dame officials have long said that they will never end the deal with Navy due to the Department of the Navy’s decision to place a navy base at land-locked South Bend during World War II and essentially fund the school during the war years.
Fourth, many of the traditional bowl games that are not included in the CFP playoffs for quarterfinal, semifinal and the championship games will be hard-pressed to stay in business with so many top teams making the tournament. Right now, there are 42 bowl games and only seven are needed to accommodate the CFP.
So where does this put the American Conference. First, conference leaders will quickly have to decide whether they want to continue to play their championship game after this season. Second, if they do decide to move forward with the game, they will have to figure out when the season starts, how many bye weeks each team gets, and the date of the title game. Keeping it on the first Saturday in December means that if Army or Navy or both make the game, the teams cannot be in two places at one time.
Here is my prediction:
1) The American increases the number of league games from eight to nine and possibly 10 to ensure that each team has enough quality games to attract fans.
2) If the league keeps the championship game, which is possible, it starts the season on Week 0 in late August or early September and cuts back the number of bye weeks to ensure that its championship game is played on the Saturday right after Thanksgiving and not interfering with Army-Navy.
3) The American seeks a partnership with another Group of Six league to ensure they play one game against each other every year. My guess is that the league looks to the Sun Belt Conference because it is a similar size to the American in terms of number of teams with 14.
4) UConn desperately tries to get into the American, which will have an uneven 15 teams within two seasons with the arrival of James Madison University. My bet is the American ends up taking the Huskies for football only.
5) Finally, expect attempts at conference jumping. Memphis would love to be in the Pac-10 and others might also be willing to move. Even teams in Power 4 conferences, particularly the Atlantic Coast Conference, may look to move to other leagues or even go independent, where they will not have to share revenue with other teams in their league.
The bottom line is that is a monster division between the Power 4 and Group of Six schools that will eventually lead to a complete separation between the two groups. It could, eventually, lead to another, smaller tournament, amongst the best Group of Six schools for their own national title.
Stay tuned, this isn’t over yet.
